Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.056044 0.063784 0.071751 0.080531 0.089904 0.099583 0.110304
2025-07-06 0.043043 0.054384 0.066720 0.080980 0.096868 0.113896 0.133400
2025-07-13 0.038602 0.052715 0.068684 0.087749 0.109575 0.133504 0.161452
2025-07-20 0.030465 0.045463 0.063192 0.085082 0.110836 0.139695 0.174028
2025-07-27 0.027392 0.043754 0.063731 0.088994 0.119271 0.153697 0.195141
2025-08-03 0.023551 0.040543 0.062023 0.089857 0.123841 0.163030 0.210747
2025-08-10 0.020095 0.037387 0.060026 0.090065 0.127382 0.170975 0.224598
2025-08-17 0.016629 0.033774 0.057096 0.088815 0.128919 0.176372 0.235331
2025-08-24 0.012741 0.029005 0.052210 0.084713 0.126651 0.176996 0.240241
2025-08-31 0.009969 0.025504 0.048731 0.082165 0.126094 0.179501 0.247230
2025-09-07 0.008177 0.023310 0.046894 0.081633 0.127963 0.184863 0.257568
2025-09-14 0.007007 0.022007 0.046235 0.082608 0.131702 0.192484 0.270607
2025-09-21 0.006624 0.022276 0.048181 0.087566 0.141141 0.207815 0.293834
2025-09-28 0.005251 0.020399 0.046740 0.087782 0.144446 0.215653 0.308164
2025-10-05 0.005322 0.021522 0.050071 0.094836 0.156874 0.235028 0.336742
2025-10-12 0.003728 0.018623 0.046678 0.092040 0.156041 0.237593 0.344592
2025-10-19 0.003402 0.018603 0.048013 0.096132 0.164481 0.251944 0.367038
2025-10-26 0.002698 0.017413 0.047246 0.097035 0.168546 0.260690 0.382531
2025-11-02 0.002036 0.016073 0.046083 0.097253 0.171613 0.268122 0.396372
2025-11-09 0.001364 0.014329 0.044005 0.095945 0.172480 0.272653 0.406540
2025-11-16 0.000671 0.011815 0.040160 0.091653 0.169000 0.271397 0.409316
2025-11-23 0.000301 0.010026 0.037459 0.088985 0.167675 0.272861 0.415451
2025-11-30 0.000135 0.008969 0.036116 0.088428 0.169308 0.278186 0.426473